Why read this: This piece offers an unusually clean example of an Economist-style argument: a deceptively neutral report card that, paragraph by paragraph, assembles a cumulative case for accelerated warming. For Mandarin L1 readers who already know the climate science in outline, the work here is mainly rhetorical—following how a writer hedges, concedes, and then rebuts without ever raising their voice. The 1.5°C threshold and the political weight of the Paris agreement give the analysis a stake that most science journalism lacks, while the human-voice ending in Buontempo's quote rewards close attention to register shifts.
What to notice: Notice how the article performs a concession-rebuttal manoeuvre across paragraphs four and five: it first grants that scientists were burned once before by the so-called climate hiatus, then pivots with 'nevertheless' into three converging lines of evidence. Track the sulphate paradox in particular—cleaner air is described as a 'hygienic boon' that simultaneously removes a brake on warming, a counter-intuitive causal chain that depends on holding two valences at once. Pay attention also to the saturated hedging: 'ought to have been', 'could pass 2°C', 'seems unlikely', 'might still throw a curveball'. Flattening any of these into certainty distorts the argument. Finally, observe the closing reframing of 1.5°C from a target to be defended into an overshoot to be managed.
Skills practised: Readers practise unpacking heavy academic nominalisation—phrases such as 'a sustained acceleration' or 'the risk of irreversible tipping points' that hide their verbs—into clause-level paraphrase. They follow numerical comparison across paragraphs (1.15°C, 1.44°C, the 1.48–1.5°C range, the 1.5°C and 2°C ceilings) without losing the argumentative thread that the numbers serve. They learn to read em-dash parentheticals as load-bearing rather than decorative, since several definitions and concessions live inside them. They map a multi-step expository structure—claim, expected counter-pattern, surprise, concession, three-part rebuttal, projection, quoted reframing—onto an article that signposts none of those moves explicitly. Finally, they tune their ear to scientific hedging and learn to preserve probability rather than collapsing it into prediction.
La Niña Notwithstanding: 2025 Confirms a Faster, Hotter Curve
The third-warmest year on record despite a cooling Pacific pattern hardens the case that global warming is accelerating—and that the 1.5°C target is slipping out of reach.
Tap any green word in the article to see its meaning.
A year that ought, on every reasonable assumption, to have come out cool has instead landed near the top of the temperature record. The principal climate- and weather-monitoring: tracking and recording weather conditions — 气象监测 agencies in Europe and America issued their report cards: summary assessments of performance over a period—here, annual climate evaluations — 年度评估报告 for 2025 this week, and the picture is consistent across data sets: warming is not merelymerely: just; only; no more than — 仅仅；只不过 continuing but speeding up.
The eleven warmest years since records began are now also the eleven most recent, with the past three sitting at the head of the leader-board: ranked list showing the top performers—here, the hottest years — 排行榜. The hottest of all was 2024, lifted by a vigorous El Niño—the Pacific pattern that nudges global temperatures upward—and by the brightest stretch of the 11-year solar cycle: the sun's roughly eleven-year pattern of rising and falling activity — 十一年太阳周期. By 2025 that El Niño had tailed off: gradually decreased or weakened — 逐渐减弱, the cooling La Niña had taken its place, and the sun had begun to dim. A cooler year was expected. As La Niña years go, however, this one was swelteringswelter: To suffer terribly from intense heat — 热得难受: the warmest on record by a clear margin.
The most recent previous La Niña year, 2022, was 1.15°C above the world's pre-industrial: relating to the period before the Industrial Revolution—the climate baseline — 工业化前的 average, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Last year was 1.44°C above it—an unusually steep step for a Niña year. Averaged across the past three years, warming has settled between 1.48°C and 1.5°C, depending on which dataset you consult.
Many climate scientists remain reluctant to draw grand conclusions from the run since 2023, mindfulmindful: Being aware (of something); attentive, heedful — 留意的 that something like the opposite once happened. Through the early 2000s observed temperatures undershotundershot: To not go far enough when trying to reach a goal — 未达到 the models, producing the so-called climate hiatus: an apparent pause in global temperature rise observed in the early 2000s — 气候停滞期 and prompting noisy claims from scepticssceptic: Someone who habitually doubts beliefs and claims presented as accepted by others, requiring strong evidence before accepting any belief or claim — 怀疑者 that warming had quietly stopped. In hindsighthindsight: Realisation or understanding of the significance and nature of events after they have occurred — 事后认识, several natural cycles had simply conspiredconspire: To secretly plot or make plans together, often with the intention to bring bad or illegal results — 密谋 to suppresssuppress: To put an end to, especially with force, to crush, do away with; to prohibit, subdue — 压制 the signal for a while.
Several convergingconverging: Of two or more entities, to approach each other; to get closer and closer — 汇聚 lines of evidence nevertheless point to a sustainedsustained: Held continuously at a certain level — 持续的 acceleration. The first is straightforward: manmade greenhouse-gas emissions: release of gases that trap heat in the atmosphere — 温室气体排放, especially though not only of carbon dioxide, keep growing rather than levelling off. The second, paradoxicallyparadoxically: In a paradoxical manner; so as to create a paradox — 矛盾地, is that another sort of pollution—sulphatessulphate: Any salt of sulfuric acid — 硫酸盐 suspended in the atmosphere—is now in retreatretreat: The act of pulling back or withdrawing, as from something dangerous, or unpleasant — 撤退. Tighter regulation has thinned two of their main sources, cargo shippingshipping: the transport of goods by sea or other means; ships collectively — 航运；运输；船舶业 and Chinese coal-fired: powered by burning coal — 燃煤的 power plants. Sulphates damage human health, but they also reflect sunlight back into space; stripping them from the air is a hygienic boonboon: A good thing; a blessing or benefit; a thing to be thankful for — 好事；恩惠；福利；值得感恩的事 that quietly removes a brake on warming.
A parallel debate concerns whether the climate system is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than mainstream estimates assume. A study published this week by climate researchers at the University of Exeter, working with members of Britain's Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, places sensitivity at the upper end of that range and warns that, if correct, global temperatures could pass 2°C by mid-century. The risks beyond 2°C—including the chance of irreversibleirreversible: Incapable of being reversed, recalled, repealed, or annulled — 不可挽回的 tipping points: thresholds beyond which a small change triggers large, often irreversible effects — 临界点—are markedlymarkedly: In a marked manner; distinctly, noticeably, conspicuously — 显著地 worse than at the 1.5°C ceiling enshrinedenshrine: To preserve or cherish (something) as though in a shrine; to preserve or contain, especially with some reverence — 珍藏 in the 2015 Paris agreement.
The strangest signals last year came from the ends of the Earth: the most distant places on the planet—here, the polar regions — 地球的两极. February 2025 brought the lowest combined polar ice cover since satellite observations began in the late 1970s, and Antarctica logged its hottest year on record. In Europe, hot, gustygusty: (of wind) Blowing in gusts; blustery; tempestuous — 阵风强劲的 conditions fed wildfires across Spain and Portugal in late July and early August, releasing nearly 14 million tonnes of carbon as carbon dioxide and as sootsoot: Fine black or dull brown particles of amorphous carbon and tar, produced by the incomplete combustion of coal, oil etc. — 煤烟, which—being black—absorbs solar radiation and feeds back into the warming itself. No previous year has come close.
If recent trends hold, the 1.5°C threshold will fall sooner than the Paris signatoriessignatory: One who signs or has signed something — 签署人 anticipated. Projecting the past 30 years' rate of warming forward gives, crudelycrudely: In a crude manner — 粗略地, an arrival in the closing year of this decade—a finding consistent with other calculationscalculation: A mathematical process of determining something by using numbers or reasoning; a deliberate assessment of risks and outcomes. — 计算；估算；深思熟虑的判断 released late last year. Carlo Buontempo, who heads Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, argues that the framing must shift: the question, he says, is no longer whether the 1.5°C overshootovershoot: The amount by which something goes too far — 超出量 can be avoided, but how it is to be managed. The next twelve months might still throw a curveball: do something unexpected that catches people off guard — 出乎意料 and bring relief, yet that looks improbableimprobable: Not likely to happen — 不太可能的. With El Niño expected to return later this year, forecasters already pencil in 2026 as another contendercontender: A person or group competing with others to achieve something, especially a leading position. — 竞争者；角逐者；有力候选人 for the leader-boards: ranked lists of top entries—here, the warmest years — 排行榜.
A year that ought, on every reasonable assumption, to have come out cool has instead landed near the top of the temperature record. The principal climate- and weather-monitoring: tracking and recording weather conditions — 气象监测 agencies in Europe and America issued their report cards: summary assessments of performance over a period—here, annual climate evaluations — 年度评估报告 for 2025 this week, and the picture is consistent across data sets: warming is not merelymerely: just; only; no more than — 仅仅；只不过 continuing but speeding up.
The eleven warmest years since records began are now also the eleven most recent, with the past three sitting at the head of the leader-board: ranked list showing the top performers—here, the hottest years — 排行榜. The hottest of all was 2024, lifted by a vigorous El Niño—the Pacific pattern that nudges global temperatures upward—and by the brightest stretch of the 11-year solar cycle: the sun's roughly eleven-year pattern of rising and falling activity — 十一年太阳周期. By 2025 that El Niño had tailed off: gradually decreased or weakened — 逐渐减弱, the cooling La Niña had taken its place, and the sun had begun to dim. A cooler year was expected. As La Niña years go, however, this one was swelteringswelter: To suffer terribly from intense heat — 热得难受: the warmest on record by a clear margin.
The most recent previous La Niña year, 2022, was 1.15°C above the world's pre-industrial: relating to the period before the Industrial Revolution—the climate baseline — 工业化前的 average, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Last year was 1.44°C above it—an unusually steep step for a Niña year. Averaged across the past three years, warming has settled between 1.48°C and 1.5°C, depending on which dataset you consult.
Many climate scientists remain reluctant to draw grand conclusions from the run since 2023, mindfulmindful: Being aware (of something); attentive, heedful — 留意的 that something like the opposite once happened. Through the early 2000s observed temperatures undershotundershot: To not go far enough when trying to reach a goal — 未达到 the models, producing the so-called climate hiatus: an apparent pause in global temperature rise observed in the early 2000s — 气候停滞期 and prompting noisy claims from scepticssceptic: Someone who habitually doubts beliefs and claims presented as accepted by others, requiring strong evidence before accepting any belief or claim — 怀疑者 that warming had quietly stopped. In hindsighthindsight: Realisation or understanding of the significance and nature of events after they have occurred — 事后认识, several natural cycles had simply conspiredconspire: To secretly plot or make plans together, often with the intention to bring bad or illegal results — 密谋 to suppresssuppress: To put an end to, especially with force, to crush, do away with; to prohibit, subdue — 压制 the signal for a while.
Several convergingconverging: Of two or more entities, to approach each other; to get closer and closer — 汇聚 lines of evidence nevertheless point to a sustainedsustained: Held continuously at a certain level — 持续的 acceleration. The first is straightforward: manmade greenhouse-gas emissions: release of gases that trap heat in the atmosphere — 温室气体排放, especially though not only of carbon dioxide, keep growing rather than levelling off. The second, paradoxicallyparadoxically: In a paradoxical manner; so as to create a paradox — 矛盾地, is that another sort of pollution—sulphatessulphate: Any salt of sulfuric acid — 硫酸盐 suspended in the atmosphere—is now in retreatretreat: The act of pulling back or withdrawing, as from something dangerous, or unpleasant — 撤退. Tighter regulation has thinned two of their main sources, cargo shippingshipping: the transport of goods by sea or other means; ships collectively — 航运；运输；船舶业 and Chinese coal-fired: powered by burning coal — 燃煤的 power plants. Sulphates damage human health, but they also reflect sunlight back into space; stripping them from the air is a hygienic boonboon: A good thing; a blessing or benefit; a thing to be thankful for — 好事；恩惠；福利；值得感恩的事 that quietly removes a brake on warming.
A parallel debate concerns whether the climate system is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than mainstream estimates assume. A study published this week by climate researchers at the University of Exeter, working with members of Britain's Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, places sensitivity at the upper end of that range and warns that, if correct, global temperatures could pass 2°C by mid-century. The risks beyond 2°C—including the chance of irreversibleirreversible: Incapable of being reversed, recalled, repealed, or annulled — 不可挽回的 tipping points: thresholds beyond which a small change triggers large, often irreversible effects — 临界点—are markedlymarkedly: In a marked manner; distinctly, noticeably, conspicuously — 显著地 worse than at the 1.5°C ceiling enshrinedenshrine: To preserve or cherish (something) as though in a shrine; to preserve or contain, especially with some reverence — 珍藏 in the 2015 Paris agreement.
The strangest signals last year came from the ends of the Earth: the most distant places on the planet—here, the polar regions — 地球的两极. February 2025 brought the lowest combined polar ice cover since satellite observations began in the late 1970s, and Antarctica logged its hottest year on record. In Europe, hot, gustygusty: (of wind) Blowing in gusts; blustery; tempestuous — 阵风强劲的 conditions fed wildfires across Spain and Portugal in late July and early August, releasing nearly 14 million tonnes of carbon as carbon dioxide and as sootsoot: Fine black or dull brown particles of amorphous carbon and tar, produced by the incomplete combustion of coal, oil etc. — 煤烟, which—being black—absorbs solar radiation and feeds back into the warming itself. No previous year has come close.
If recent trends hold, the 1.5°C threshold will fall sooner than the Paris signatoriessignatory: One who signs or has signed something — 签署人 anticipated. Projecting the past 30 years' rate of warming forward gives, crudelycrudely: In a crude manner — 粗略地, an arrival in the closing year of this decade—a finding consistent with other calculationscalculation: A mathematical process of determining something by using numbers or reasoning; a deliberate assessment of risks and outcomes. — 计算；估算；深思熟虑的判断 released late last year. Carlo Buontempo, who heads Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, argues that the framing must shift: the question, he says, is no longer whether the 1.5°C overshootovershoot: The amount by which something goes too far — 超出量 can be avoided, but how it is to be managed. The next twelve months might still throw a curveball: do something unexpected that catches people off guard — 出乎意料 and bring relief, yet that looks improbableimprobable: Not likely to happen — 不太可能的. With El Niño expected to return later this year, forecasters already pencil in 2026 as another contendercontender: A person or group competing with others to achieve something, especially a leading position. — 竞争者；角逐者；有力候选人 for the leader-boards: ranked lists of top entries—here, the warmest years — 排行榜.
Questions
Check your understanding
- 01
Why does the article describe 2025's ranking as especially striking, given that it sat below 2024 in absolute terms?
- 02
How does the article use the early-2000s 'climate hiatus' within its overall argument?
- 03
Why is the decline of atmospheric sulphates described as adding to warming?
- 04
Assess the claim that the evidence presented in the article justifies treating warming as 'accelerating' rather than merely 'continuing'. Use at least two of the article's evidence lines in your answer.
Suggested length: ~100 words
- 05
Argue whether Buontempo's reframing—from 'avoiding 1.5°C' to 'managing the overshoot'—represents a realistic policy adjustment or a quiet retreat from the Paris commitment.
Suggested length: ~100 words
Questions
Check your understanding
- 01
Why does the article describe 2025's ranking as especially striking, given that it sat below 2024 in absolute terms?
- 02
How does the article use the early-2000s 'climate hiatus' within its overall argument?
- 03
Why is the decline of atmospheric sulphates described as adding to warming?
- 04
Assess the claim that the evidence presented in the article justifies treating warming as 'accelerating' rather than merely 'continuing'. Use at least two of the article's evidence lines in your answer.
Suggested length: ~100 words
- 05
Argue whether Buontempo's reframing—from 'avoiding 1.5°C' to 'managing the overshoot'—represents a realistic policy adjustment or a quiet retreat from the Paris commitment.
Suggested length: ~100 words