Why read this: This is a news analysis of how the 2026 Middle East conflict is reshaping global aviation, a topic that affects almost every Chinese family with travel, study, or work abroad. Rather than just reporting events, the article builds an argument. It claims that twenty years of relying on Gulf airline hubs has turned out to be a concentration risk, while direct routes between Europe and Asia are re-emerging as alternatives.
What to notice: Watch how the writer sets scale before making an argument: paragraph 2 loads quantitative evidence — percentages, barrels per day, price ranges — to ground what follows. Notice how named companies with specific actions (SAS, Lufthansa, Wizz Air, Ryanair) are contrasted with generic industry categories (legacy carriers, low-cost carriers). Pay attention to how cause and effect are chained through paragraphs 3 and 4 without explicit signposting.
Skills practised: Reading: following an argument across paragraphs; extracting quantitative claims; inferring cause and effect from juxtaposition. Writing: using an evidence-then-implication structure; hedging claims with modal verbs such as 'may', 'could', or 'will almost certainly'; building an editorial voice without using 'I' or 'we'.
The Gulf Airline Hub Just Hit a Big Problem
For twenty years, most Asia–Europe flights connected through Dubai and other Gulf cities. The war has changed all that.
Tap any green word in the article to see its meaning.
A fire broke out near Dubai International Airport on 16th March after a drone strike hit a fuel tank nearby. Dozens of Emirates flights had to be cancelled, and other planes were redirected to Al Maktoum airport. Many Chinese families know this route well — Shanghai, Beijing or Hong Kong to Europe, with a short stop in the Gulf. For twenty years this has been the standard long-distance route, but since the war between Iran and a US–Israel alliance began on 28th February, it has become a war zone.
The disruption to the airline industry is hard to overstate. About one-fifth of the world's oil and roughly 40% of Europe's jet fuel travel through the . According to US energy figures, Gulf oil producers cut around 7.5 million barrels per day in March, and this rose to 9.1 million by April. The International Energy Agency has warned that European airports could run short of jet fuel by June if supplies do not recover. Brent crude oil, which had been around $69 a barrel before the war, has climbed to $100, and jet fuel has risen even faster because oil refineries cannot keep up with demand.
Airlines have responded quickly, but their actions have been uneven. SAS has already cancelled 1,000 flights for April; Lufthansa has paused Middle East services until at least the end of April; and Wizz Air has warned that its 2026 profits will fall by €50 million. Air France-KLM has doubled its long-distance fuel surcharge and now adds up to €319 per leg on routes. The chief executive of Virgin Atlantic told the Financial Times that his airline will probably not make a profit this year. America's three biggest airlines — American, United and Delta — are particularly exposed because they did not buy contracts in calmer years, and their share prices have fallen sharply. Ryanair, by contrast, had locked in fuel at $67 a barrel and has been mostly shielded.
The longer routes cost more, especially because European airlines have already had to avoid Russian airspace since the Ukraine war began in 2022. The Middle East corridor was the main alternative, and now it has closed too. Flights now travel through a narrow strip of airspace over Azerbaijan and former Soviet countries, adding two to four hours to some journeys and increasing fuel use by 20 to 30%. According to one aviation analyst, every extra flight hour costs between $6,000 and $7,500.
The disruption is also an opportunity for some airlines. Cathay Pacific is adding direct services from Hong Kong to London and Paris, skipping the Gulf entirely, while Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM are rebuilding their Asian networks. The direct Asia–Europe route, which Gulf hub airlines spent twenty years pushing aside, is reopening. Established airlines (sometimes called ) have both the financial protection of fuel hedging and the strategic motivation to keep these routes. A parent flying from Shanghai to London to visit a child at boarding school now has options that would have looked unattractive eighteen months ago.
None of this means Emirates, Etihad or Qatar Airways will disappear; they will almost certainly return with deep discounts once the region is stable again, and these will sometimes be worth taking. But the war has done something twenty years of European lobbying could not: it has shown that depending on a single airport is risky. Chinese travellers, who quietly benefited from the Gulf hub model for years, will probably notice this change first.
A fire broke out near Dubai International Airport on 16th March after a drone strike hit a fuel tank nearby. Dozens of Emirates flights had to be cancelled, and other planes were redirected to Al Maktoum airport. Many Chinese families know this route well — Shanghai, Beijing or Hong Kong to Europe, with a short stop in the Gulf. For twenty years this has been the standard long-distance route, but since the war between Iran and a US–Israel alliance began on 28th February, it has become a war zone.
The disruption to the airline industry is hard to overstate. About one-fifth of the world's oil and roughly 40% of Europe's jet fuel travel through the . According to US energy figures, Gulf oil producers cut around 7.5 million barrels per day in March, and this rose to 9.1 million by April. The International Energy Agency has warned that European airports could run short of jet fuel by June if supplies do not recover. Brent crude oil, which had been around $69 a barrel before the war, has climbed to $100, and jet fuel has risen even faster because oil refineries cannot keep up with demand.
Airlines have responded quickly, but their actions have been uneven. SAS has already cancelled 1,000 flights for April; Lufthansa has paused Middle East services until at least the end of April; and Wizz Air has warned that its 2026 profits will fall by €50 million. Air France-KLM has doubled its long-distance fuel surcharge and now adds up to €319 per leg on routes. The chief executive of Virgin Atlantic told the Financial Times that his airline will probably not make a profit this year. America's three biggest airlines — American, United and Delta — are particularly exposed because they did not buy contracts in calmer years, and their share prices have fallen sharply. Ryanair, by contrast, had locked in fuel at $67 a barrel and has been mostly shielded.
The longer routes cost more, especially because European airlines have already had to avoid Russian airspace since the Ukraine war began in 2022. The Middle East corridor was the main alternative, and now it has closed too. Flights now travel through a narrow strip of airspace over Azerbaijan and former Soviet countries, adding two to four hours to some journeys and increasing fuel use by 20 to 30%. According to one aviation analyst, every extra flight hour costs between $6,000 and $7,500.
The disruption is also an opportunity for some airlines. Cathay Pacific is adding direct services from Hong Kong to London and Paris, skipping the Gulf entirely, while Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM are rebuilding their Asian networks. The direct Asia–Europe route, which Gulf hub airlines spent twenty years pushing aside, is reopening. Established airlines (sometimes called ) have both the financial protection of fuel hedging and the strategic motivation to keep these routes. A parent flying from Shanghai to London to visit a child at boarding school now has options that would have looked unattractive eighteen months ago.
None of this means Emirates, Etihad or Qatar Airways will disappear; they will almost certainly return with deep discounts once the region is stable again, and these will sometimes be worth taking. But the war has done something twenty years of European lobbying could not: it has shown that depending on a single airport is risky. Chinese travellers, who quietly benefited from the Gulf hub model for years, will probably notice this change first.
Questions
Check your understanding
- 01
What proportion of Europe's jet fuel normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz?
- 02
Why has Ryanair been less affected by the fuel price rise than the big American airlines?
- 03
What is the writer's main argument across the article?
- 04
How does the article suggest that the war is both a problem and an opportunity for European airlines? Use specific evidence from the text.
Suggested length: ~80 words
- 05
Explain why some airlines are protected from the fuel price increase while others have been badly affected. Give specific examples from the article.
Suggested length: ~80 words
Questions
Check your understanding
- 01
What proportion of Europe's jet fuel normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz?
- 02
Why has Ryanair been less affected by the fuel price rise than the big American airlines?
- 03
What is the writer's main argument across the article?
- 04
How does the article suggest that the war is both a problem and an opportunity for European airlines? Use specific evidence from the text.
Suggested length: ~80 words
- 05
Explain why some airlines are protected from the fuel price increase while others have been badly affected. Give specific examples from the article.
Suggested length: ~80 words